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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Cagliari run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Hellas Verona.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cagliari beat Hellas Verona 4-0 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.32 xG and Hellas Verona 0.90 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Cagliari beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hellas Verona landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Hellas Verona attack 0.79 / defence 1.13, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 46% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 26%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 50%, Hellas Verona 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Hellas Verona's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.02 PPG, Hellas Verona 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights