Cagliari vs Fiorentina – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Cagliari at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cagliari vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cagliari and Fiorentina meet at Unipol Domus in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 March 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cagliari have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Cagliari have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cagliari at Unipol Domus this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Unipol Domus this season.
Fiorentina (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Fiorentina have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fiorentina's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Cagliari's 2.20 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Fiorentina's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 8 meetings, Fiorentina have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Cagliari's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with Cagliari winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fiorentina have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Cagliari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 46% versus Fiorentina 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 46% | Fiorentina 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.47 xG and Fiorentina 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.828 / defence 0.824 | Fiorentina attack 1.100 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.331. Fiorentina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Cagliari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Cagliari games / 43 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 43% | Draw 26% | Fiorentina 31%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Fiorentina 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Fiorentina lead the H2H ledger, but Cagliari carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cagliari at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cagliari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Cagliari 30% | Fiorentina 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Mar 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 43% | Draw 26% | Fiorentina 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Cagliari 1.47 / Fiorentina 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.828 / def 0.824 | Fiorentina attack 1.100 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Fiorentina xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Fiorentina kick off?
Cagliari vs Fiorentina is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 14 March 2027 at Unipol Domus.
Where is Cagliari vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Fiorentina part of?
Cagliari vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 43% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cagliari and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Fiorentina?
Record (8 meetings): Cagliari 1W | Draws 2 | Fiorentina 5W.
What form are Cagliari and Fiorentina in?
Cagliari (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Fiorentina (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (0.83) and Fiorentina's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (1.10x) against Cagliari's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
43%
2.32
26%
3.89
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.67
1.21
Fiorentina xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
7%
13.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.21 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cagliari come into this having played 43 games, going 15W 10D 18L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Cagliari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.07 PPG from 43 outings (10W 16D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fiorentina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Cagliari against 1.07 for Fiorentina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cagliari's home form reads 8W 4D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.14 points per game from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Cagliari are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.09 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Early Season
Fiorentina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 15W 10D 18L in their last 43 games (1.28 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 10W 16D 17L in their last 43 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Fiorentina away?
Cagliari's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.33 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 3-0 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cagliari
2
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Fiorentina?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, Fiorentina have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Fiorentina 1-2 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cagliari see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 33%, Fiorentina 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cagliari) and 62% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Cagliari keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cagliari have failed to score in 38% of games; Fiorentina in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Cagliari's recent matches and 52% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cagliari vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cagliari's recent games and 62% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.