Bologna vs Udinese – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Udinese at 39%, yet in-form Bologna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bologna vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Udinese make the trip to to face Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bologna's home record at : 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Udinese (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie A this season, Udinese have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form ledger tips toward Bologna. A 0.90 PPG lead over Udinese (1.40 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Bologna, who have won 4 of the last 10 meetings against Udinese — a 5D 1W return for the visitors.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Bologna winning.

The historical record gives Bologna a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Bologna — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Udinese — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 48% versus Udinese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 46% | Udinese 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.44 xG and Udinese 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.856 / defence 1.028 | Udinese attack 0.976 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.502. Data: 48 Bologna games / 48 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bologna 36% | Draw 25% | Udinese 39%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Udinese 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bologna (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 50% | Udinese 50%.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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