Bologna vs Udinese – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Udinese at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Udinese make the trip to to face Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Bologna's home record at : 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Udinese (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Serie A this season, Udinese have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Bologna against 1.40 for Udinese. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Bologna, who have won 4 of the last 10 meetings against Udinese — a 5D 1W return for the visitors.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Bologna winning.

The historical record gives Bologna a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Bologna — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Udinese — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 44% versus Udinese 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 44% | Udinese 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.27 xG and Udinese 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.938 / defence 1.055 | Udinese attack 1.182 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.322. Data: 41 Bologna games / 41 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bologna 29% | Draw 24% | Udinese 46%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Udinese 2.17. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Bologna 30% | Udinese 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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