Bologna 1-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bologna at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Udinese make the trip to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to face Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 August 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Bologna haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Bologna's home record at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
Udinese (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Udinese haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Udinese have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Bologna. A 0.70 PPG lead over Udinese (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bologna lead 2W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bologna — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Udinese — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 45% versus Udinese 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bologna 42% | Udinese 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.38 xG and Udinese 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.105 / defence 0.921 | Udinese attack 0.941 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.213. Data: 38 Bologna games / 38 Udinese games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bologna 42% | Draw 31% | Udinese 26%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Udinese 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Bologna 40% | Udinese 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 42% | Draw 31% | Udinese 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Bologna 1.38 / Udinese 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.105 / def 0.921 | Udinese attack 0.941 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Bologna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Udinese xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Udinese kick off?
Bologna vs Udinese kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Udinese?
Bologna 1 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Bologna vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Udinese part of?
Bologna vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 42% chance of winning, Udinese a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bologna and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Udinese?
Record (6 meetings): Bologna 2W | Draws 3 | Udinese 1W.
What form are Bologna and Udinese in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Bologna (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bologna's attack rating (1.10) and Udinese's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (0.94x) against Bologna's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
42%
2.37
31%
3.19
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.43
1.05
Udinese xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
7%
15.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bologna and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Bologna and 1.05 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 18W 14D 6L record — D-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. Bologna haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Udinese's form line: 6W 19D 13L from 38 games, 0.97 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W. Udinese haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Bologna are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Udinese.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bologna have posted 2.16 PPG from 19 outings (12W 5D 2L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 5W 8D 6L from 19 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bologna are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 0.97 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Pre-Season
Udinese
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Udinese in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 18W 14D 6L in their last 38 games (1.79 PPG), while Udinese have gone 6W 19D 13L in their last 38 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Udinese away?
Bologna's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.16 PPG; Udinese away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Bologna or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Udinese in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 3-0 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
5
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Udinese have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Bologna 1-0 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Udinese?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Udinese see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 32%, Udinese 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Bologna and 26% for Udinese.
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Udinese in 32%; Udinese in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Bologna's recent matches and 47% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Bologna's recent games and 26% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Udinese tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Udinese in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna and Udinese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna and Udinese finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.38 xG and Udinese 1.05 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.10 / defence 0.92 against Udinese attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 42% | Draw 31% | Udinese 26%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 42%, Udinese 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.