Bologna vs Torino – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Torino at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Torino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bologna host Torino at in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bologna — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna at this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Torino stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Torino have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Torino away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bologna at 1.20 PPG versus Torino's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Bologna: 5 wins from 10 previous clashes against 2 for Torino, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Bologna winning.
The historical record gives Bologna a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bologna in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Torino in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 44% versus Torino 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 44% | Torino 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.33 xG and Torino 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.938 / defence 1.069 | Torino attack 0.954 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.323. Data: 41 Bologna games / 41 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 37% | Draw 26% | Torino 38%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Torino 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Torino at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Torino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 30% | Torino 60%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 37% | Draw 26% | Torino 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Bologna 1.33 / Torino 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.938 / def 1.069 | Torino attack 0.954 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Torino (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Torino xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Torino kick off?
Bologna vs Torino is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 September 2026.
What competition is Bologna vs Torino part of?
Bologna vs Torino is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 37% chance of winning, Torino a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Bologna and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Torino?
Record (10 meetings): Bologna 5W | Draws 3 | Torino 2W.
What form are Bologna and Torino in?
Bologna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Torino (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bologna's attack rating (0.94) and Torino's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
37%
2.74
26%
3.85
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.68
1.35
Torino xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
9%
10.55
10%
10.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Bologna and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Bologna and 1.35 for Torino, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna's recent record stands at 16W 9D 16L from 41 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Torino, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 19L across 41 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Torino, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.39 PPG, Torino on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 6W 5D 10L from 21 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Torino's away record stands at 5W 5D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.17 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Torino
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Torino in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 16W 9D 16L in their last 41 games (1.39 PPG), while Torino have gone 13W 9D 19L in their last 41 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Torino away?
Bologna's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.10 PPG; Torino away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bologna's record when hosting Torino specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bologna
3
Draws
2
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Torino?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 5, Torino have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Torino 1-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Torino?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 33%, Torino 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bologna) and 62% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Torino in 33%; Bologna have failed to score in 43% of games; Torino in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Bologna's recent matches and 43% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bologna's recent games and 62% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Torino tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Torino in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.