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Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Torino 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna beat Torino 3-2 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.39 xG and Torino 1.04 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Torino outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.12 / defence 0.88 against Torino attack 0.90 / defence 0.91, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bologna 42% | Draw 33% | Torino 25%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 46%, Torino 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bologna's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Torino's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Torino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights