Bologna 2-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Monza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 10 as Bologna welcome Monza to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season.
Monza — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Bologna carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Bologna, 1 for Monza and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2025, ended 3–1 with Bologna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Monza trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 47% versus Monza 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 45% | Monza 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 2.00 xG and Monza 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.868 / defence 1.042 | Monza attack 0.892 / defence 1.515. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.480. Monza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.515 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Bologna games / 9 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 52% | Draw 22% | Monza 26%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Monza 3.85. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 50% | Monza 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 52% | Draw 22% | Monza 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Bologna 2.00 / Monza 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.868 / def 1.042 | Monza attack 0.892 / def 1.515 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.480 • Poisson stance: Bologna (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Monza xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Monza kick off?
Bologna vs Monza kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Monza?
Bologna 2 - 1 Monza.
Where is Bologna vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Monza part of?
Bologna vs Monza is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 52% chance of winning, Monza a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Bologna and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Monza?
Record (6 meetings): Bologna 3W | Draws 2 | Monza 1W.
What form are Bologna and Monza in?
Bologna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Monza (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bologna's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Monza's defensive record (1.51x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
52%
1.93
22%
4.61
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Bologna xG
Total xG
3.37
1.38
Monza xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
14%
7.35
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
4%
27.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Bologna and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Bologna and 1.38 for Monza, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna come into this having played 47 games, going 19W 10D 18L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.77 PPG from 47 outings (24W 11D 12L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.43 PPG, Monza on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bologna's home form reads 6W 6D 11L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.43 points per game from 23 outings (9W 6D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.68 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Monza in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 19W 10D 18L in their last 47 games (1.43 PPG), while Monza have gone 24W 11D 12L in their last 47 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Monza away?
Monza's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.04 PPG; Monza away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Bologna or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Monza in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Bologna's record when hosting Monza specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Bologna
2
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Monza?
From 7 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Monza have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Bologna 2-1 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Monza?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 39%, Monza 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Bologna) and 56% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Monza in 35%; Bologna have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Bologna's recent matches and 56% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Bologna's recent games and 56% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Monza tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Monza in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Monza 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Monza 2-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 2.00 xG and Monza 1.38 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.87 / defence 1.04 against Monza attack 0.89 / defence 1.51, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 52% | Draw 22% | Monza 26%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 45%, Monza 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Monza's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.43 PPG, Monza 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.