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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bologna and Inter share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna and Inter finished level at 3-3 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 0.72 xG and Inter 1.77 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Inter outscored their 1.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.70 / defence 1.03 against Inter attack 1.48 / defence 0.84, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bologna 15% | Draw 23% | Inter 62%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 48%, Inter 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bologna's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Inter's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inter (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights