Bologna 2-1 AC Milan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs AC Milan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 9 as Bologna welcome AC Milan to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Kick-off is set for Thursday 27 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Bologna are significantly better at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AC Milan stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AC Milan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AC Milan have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Bologna) versus 1.80 (AC Milan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
AC Milan have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 6 encounters against Bologna's 0 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
It is worth noting that AC Milan have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Bologna in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
AC Milan in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 49% versus AC Milan 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 46% | AC Milan 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.68 xG and AC Milan 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.233 / defence 0.976 | AC Milan attack 1.020 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.225. Data: 63 Bologna games / 63 AC Milan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 47% | Draw 27% | AC Milan 26%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | AC Milan 3.85. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 50% | AC Milan 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs AC Milan | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Thursday 27 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 47% | Draw 27% | AC Milan 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Bologna 1.68 / AC Milan 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.233 / def 0.976 | AC Milan attack 1.020 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Bologna (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.22
AC Milan xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs AC Milan kick off?
Bologna vs AC Milan kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 27 February 2025 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs AC Milan?
Bologna 2 - 1 AC Milan.
Where is Bologna vs AC Milan being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs AC Milan part of?
Bologna vs AC Milan is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs AC Milan?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 47% chance of winning, AC Milan a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs AC Milan?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bologna and AC Milan will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs AC Milan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and AC Milan?
Record (6 meetings): Bologna 0W | Draws 3 | AC Milan 3W.
What form are Bologna and AC Milan in?
Bologna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. AC Milan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bologna's attack at 1.23x the league average against AC Milan's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AC Milan's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
47%
2.14
27%
3.71
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.90
1.22
AC Milan xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
5%
20.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs AC Milan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Bologna and AC Milan expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Bologna and 1.22 for AC Milan, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs AC Milan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bologna's recent record stands at 28W 25D 10L from 63 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AC Milan, meanwhile, have gone 33W 17D 13L across 63 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for AC Milan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.73 PPG, AC Milan on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 18W 10D 3L from 31 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AC Milan's away record stands at 15W 7D 9L across 31 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Bologna are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; AC Milan are on 1.79 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; AC Milan in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
AC Milan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and AC Milan in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 28W 25D 10L in their last 63 games (1.73 PPG), while AC Milan have gone 33W 17D 13L in their last 63 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or AC Milan away?
Bologna's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.06 PPG; AC Milan away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Bologna or AC Milan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, AC Milan in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bologna and AC Milan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AC Milan have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Feb 2026, when AC Milan won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting AC Milan specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Bologna
3
Draws
6
AC Milan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and AC Milan?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 1, AC Milan have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and AC Milan last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Bologna 0-3 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and AC Milan?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 42%, AC Milan 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Bologna) and 74% (AC Milan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / AC Milan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play AC Milan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Bologna's games and 71% of AC Milan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bologna vs AC Milan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 39% of Bologna's matches and 74% of AC Milan's.
Do Bologna and AC Milan tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, AC Milan in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out AC Milan 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat AC Milan 2-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.68 xG and AC Milan 1.22 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.23 / defence 0.98 against AC Milan attack 1.02 / defence 1.02, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 47% | Draw 27% | AC Milan 26%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 46%, AC Milan 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
AC Milan's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.73 PPG, AC Milan 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.