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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Atalanta and Lecce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atalanta and Lecce finished level at 1-1 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.45 xG and Lecce 0.93 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.02 / defence 0.93 against Lecce attack 0.89 / defence 1.17, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atalanta 49% | Draw 27% | Lecce 24%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 59%, Lecce 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atalanta's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Lecce's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights