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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Atalanta and Juventus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as Atalanta and Juventus drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.88 xG and Juventus 1.54 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Atalanta fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.64 / defence 1.03 against Juventus attack 1.15 / defence 0.89, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atalanta 45% | Draw 24% | Juventus 31%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 65%, Juventus 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atalanta's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Juventus's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.95 PPG, Juventus 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights