AS Roma vs Udinese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AS Roma face Udinese.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Udinese travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 January 2027, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
AS Roma — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Olimpico, AS Roma have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico.
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Udinese have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
AS Roma are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 2.00 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of AS Roma: 7 wins from 10 previous clashes against 2 for Udinese, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2026, ended 5–2 with AS Roma winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AS Roma and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
AS Roma trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Udinese trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 38% versus Udinese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 44% | Udinese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 2.33 xG and Udinese 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.391 / defence 0.823 | Udinese attack 0.976 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.503. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.391 — their λ of 2.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 AS Roma games / 48 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 62% | Draw 19% | Udinese 19%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.61 | Draw 5.26 | Udinese 5.26. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.33 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.54 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: AS Roma 40% | Udinese 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jan 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 62% | Draw 19% | Udinese 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 63% | xG AS Roma 2.33 / Udinese 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.391 / def 0.823 | Udinese attack 0.976 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Udinese xG
63%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Udinese kick off?
AS Roma vs Udinese is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 24 January 2027 at Stadio Olimpico.
Where is AS Roma vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Udinese part of?
AS Roma vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 62% chance of winning, Udinese a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both AS Roma and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Udinese?
Record (10 meetings): AS Roma 7W | Draws 1 | Udinese 2W.
What form are AS Roma and Udinese in?
AS Roma (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Udinese (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.39) and Udinese's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
62%
1.60
19%
5.26
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
AS Roma xG
Total xG
3.54
1.21
Udinese xG
1.60
62%
Home win
5.26
19%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
10%
10.27
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
2%
55.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.21 for Udinese, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Udinese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Roma's recent record stands at 30W 7D 11L from 48 games, a 2.02 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 24L across 48 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 17W 4D 3L from 24 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Udinese's away record stands at 9W 4D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AS Roma are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.17 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Udinese in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 30W 7D 11L in their last 48 games (2.02 PPG), while Udinese have gone 15W 9D 24L in their last 48 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Udinese away?
AS Roma's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.29 PPG; Udinese away: 1.29 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Udinese in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AS Roma and Udinese runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Sep 2022, when Udinese won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Roma's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AS Roma
1
Draws
2
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 7, Udinese have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Udinese 2-5 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Udinese?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 33%, Udinese 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (AS Roma) and 58% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of AS Roma's recent matches and 58% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of AS Roma's recent games and 58% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Udinese tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Udinese in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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