🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Torino defy the odds to beat AS Roma 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Torino beat AS Roma 0-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.85 xG and Torino 0.75 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AS Roma fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.09 / defence 0.81 against Torino attack 0.83 / defence 1.35, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it AS Roma 63% | Draw 23% | Torino 14%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Torino win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 38%, Torino 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Roma's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Torino's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Torino winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Torino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights