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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Pisa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Pisa 3-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 2.52 xG and Pisa 0.68 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.23 / defence 0.76 against Pisa attack 0.76 / defence 1.62, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Roma 77% | Draw 15% | Pisa 8%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 77%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 38%, Pisa 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Roma's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Pisa's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights