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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AS Roma and Napoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 23, as AS Roma and Napoli drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.39 xG and Napoli 1.47 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.41 / defence 0.83 against Napoli attack 1.35 / defence 0.72, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Roma 33% | Draw 30% | Napoli 37%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 57%, Napoli 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Roma's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Napoli's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.55 PPG, Napoli 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights