AS Roma vs Lecce – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (0.92) and Lecce's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lecce's attack (0.60x) against AS Roma's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
42%
2.36
34%
2.98
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
AS Roma xG
Total xG
1.84
0.75
Lecce xG
2.36
42%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
8%
12.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 11.9 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.75 for Lecce, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.