AS Roma vs Inter – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Inter fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Inter meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
AS Roma (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, AS Roma have posted 7W 3D 0L at Stadio Olimpico — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Inter have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Inter have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Inter's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.50 PPG for AS Roma against 2.40 for Inter. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Inter, who have claimed 8 wins from 10 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 2–5 with Inter winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Inter have won 8 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Inter goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 32% versus Inter 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 40% | Inter 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.49 xG and Inter 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.455 / defence 0.738 | Inter attack 1.171 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.455 — their λ of 1.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.738 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 AS Roma games / 40 Inter games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 47% | Draw 26% | Inter 27%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Inter 3.70. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: AS Roma 30% | Inter 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 47% | Draw 26% | Inter 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG AS Roma 1.49 / Inter 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.455 / def 0.738 | Inter attack 1.171 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Inter xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Inter kick off?
AS Roma vs Inter is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Stadio Olimpico.
Where is AS Roma vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Inter part of?
AS Roma vs Inter is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 47% chance of winning, Inter a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both AS Roma and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Inter?
Record (10 meetings): AS Roma 2W | Draws 0 | Inter 8W.
What form are AS Roma and Inter in?
AS Roma (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Inter (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.46) and Inter's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Inter's attack (1.17x) against AS Roma's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.86
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.56
1.06
Inter xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
6%
16.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.06 for Inter, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AS Roma's recent record stands at 25W 4D 11L from 40 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Inter, meanwhile, have gone 29W 6D 5L across 40 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Inter, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.98 PPG for AS Roma against 2.33 for Inter. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 14W 3D 3L from 20 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Inter's away record stands at 14W 3D 3L across 20 trips, a 2.25 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AS Roma are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.35 scored and 0.90 conceded. Inter's attacking output running into AS Roma's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Inter in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Early Season
Inter
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Inter in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 25W 4D 11L in their last 40 games (1.98 PPG), while Inter have gone 29W 6D 5L in their last 40 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Inter away?
AS Roma's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.25 PPG; Inter away: 2.25 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Inter in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Inter have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won 0-3 on 4 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Inter — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AS Roma
0
Draws
8
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 2, Inter have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Inter 5-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (AS Roma) and 40% (Inter) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (AS Roma) and 45% (Inter).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Inter in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of AS Roma's recent matches and 40% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of AS Roma's recent games and 45% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Inter tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Inter in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.