🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Como 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Como 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.14 xG and Como 0.93 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Como landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.95 / defence 0.79 against Como attack 1.06 / defence 0.98, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Roma 40% | Draw 30% | Como 30%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 35%, Como 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Roma's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Como's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win. Como (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights