AS Roma 4-2 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 64% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Cagliari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 9 as AS Roma welcome Cagliari to Stadio Olimpico. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 27 October 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
AS Roma hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 1 for Cagliari, with 1 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with AS Roma winning.
The historical record gives AS Roma a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Cagliari in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 35% versus Cagliari 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 41% | Cagliari 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.96 xG and Cagliari 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.285 / defence 0.753 | Cagliari attack 0.795 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.380. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.753 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 AS Roma games / 46 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 64% | Draw 21% | Cagliari 15%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Cagliari 6.67. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 40% | Cagliari 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 64% | Draw 21% | Cagliari 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 48% | xG AS Roma 1.96 / Cagliari 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.285 / def 0.753 | Cagliari attack 0.795 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Cagliari xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Cagliari kick off?
AS Roma vs Cagliari kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 27 October 2026 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Cagliari?
AS Roma 4 - 2 Cagliari.
Where is AS Roma vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Cagliari part of?
AS Roma vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 64% chance of winning, Cagliari a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both AS Roma and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Cagliari?
Record (8 meetings): AS Roma 6W | Draws 1 | Cagliari 1W.
What form are AS Roma and Cagliari in?
AS Roma (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Cagliari (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.28x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
64%
1.56
21%
4.76
15%
6.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.78
0.83
Cagliari xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
6.64
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
14%
7.09
Win to Nil
28%
3.57
2%
47.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.83 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Roma come into this having played 46 games, going 28W 7D 11L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-D. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cagliari sit at 1.22 PPG from 46 outings (15W 11D 20L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
AS Roma's home form reads 16W 4D 3L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Cagliari have taken 1.17 points per game from 23 outings (7W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AS Roma are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.00 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Cagliari in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 28W 7D 11L in their last 46 games (1.98 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 15W 11D 20L in their last 46 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Cagliari away?
AS Roma's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.26 PPG; Cagliari away: 1.17 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Cagliari in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AS Roma and Cagliari runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 27 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2024, when AS Roma won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Roma's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
7
AS Roma
1
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Cagliari?
From 9 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 7, Cagliari have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2026, when AS Roma 4-2 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Cagliari?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 30%, Cagliari 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (AS Roma) and 61% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Cagliari in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of AS Roma's recent matches and 56% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of AS Roma's recent games and 61% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Cagliari tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Cagliari 4-2 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.96 xG and Cagliari 0.83 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cagliari outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.28 / defence 0.75 against Cagliari attack 0.80 / defence 1.04, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 64% | Draw 21% | Cagliari 15%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 41%, Cagliari 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Cagliari's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.