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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Udinese run riot with a 0-3 hammering of AC Milan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Udinese beat AC Milan 0-3 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Milan 1.50 xG and Udinese 1.07 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. AC Milan fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Udinese outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Milan attack 1.09 / defence 0.88 against Udinese attack 1.05 / defence 1.09, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AC Milan 47% | Draw 26% | Udinese 27%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Udinese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Milan 52%, Udinese 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AC Milan's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Udinese's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AC Milan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights