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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AC Milan and Sassuolo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 15, as AC Milan and Sassuolo drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Milan 1.32 xG and Sassuolo 0.97 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sassuolo outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Milan attack 1.10 / defence 0.88 against Sassuolo attack 1.00 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AC Milan 45% | Draw 28% | Sassuolo 27%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Milan 58%, Sassuolo 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AC Milan's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Sassuolo's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AC Milan 1.81 PPG, Sassuolo 1.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AC Milan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sassuolo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights