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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AC Milan and Pisa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AC Milan and Pisa finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Milan 2.01 xG and Pisa 0.91 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Pisa outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Milan attack 1.18 / defence 0.96 against Pisa attack 0.89 / defence 1.47, drawn from 45/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AC Milan 61% | Draw 24% | Pisa 15%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Milan 60%, Pisa 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AC Milan's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Pisa's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AC Milan 1.76 PPG, Pisa 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AC Milan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights