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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AC Milan and Inter share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 23, as AC Milan and Inter drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Milan 0.79 xG and Inter 1.84 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Inter landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Milan attack 1.03 / defence 0.82 against Inter attack 1.69 / defence 0.56, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AC Milan 13% | Draw 26% | Inter 60%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 60%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Milan 63%, Inter 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AC Milan's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Inter's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights