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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AC Milan and Fiorentina share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AC Milan and Fiorentina finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Milan 1.36 xG and Fiorentina 1.06 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Fiorentina outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Milan attack 1.06 / defence 0.91 against Fiorentina attack 1.00 / defence 0.99, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AC Milan 42% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 28%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Milan 63%, Fiorentina 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AC Milan's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Fiorentina's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AC Milan 1.79 PPG, Fiorentina 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AC Milan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights