🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as AC Milan defy the odds to beat AS Roma 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AC Milan beat AS Roma 1-0 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Milan 0.95 xG and AS Roma 1.16 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AS Roma landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Milan attack 1.16 / defence 1.04 against AS Roma attack 1.04 / defence 0.70, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AC Milan 28% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 39%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual AC Milan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Milan 60%, AS Roma 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AC Milan's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

AS Roma's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AC Milan 1.72 PPG, AS Roma 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Milan win broke the near-deadlock. AC Milan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights