🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Waterford at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

St Patrick's Athl. make the trip to Regional Sports Centre to face Waterford in Premier Division, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

Waterford (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waterford, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Waterford at Regional Sports Centre this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

St Patrick's Athl.'s overall Premier Division record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Waterford against 1.00 for St Patrick's Athl.. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Waterford lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Waterford — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

St Patrick's Athl. — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 52% versus St Patrick's Athl. 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 56% | St Patrick's Athl. 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.40 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 1.022 / defence 1.241 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.815 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.067. Data: 61 Waterford games / 61 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Waterford 44% | Draw 27% | St Patrick's Athl. 29%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Waterford are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waterford if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Waterford 60% | St Patrick's Athl. 40%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights