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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Waterford 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St Patrick's Athl. beat Waterford 1-2 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.06 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.25 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.84 / defence 1.22 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.00 / defence 1.01, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waterford 31% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 41%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 51%, St Patrick's Athl. 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Waterford 1.30 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. Waterford (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights