🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Shelbourne defy the odds to beat Waterford 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shelbourne beat Waterford 0-1 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.19 xG and Shelbourne 1.03 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Waterford fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Shelbourne attack 0.96 / defence 0.92, drawn from 37/37 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waterford 38% | Draw 32% | Shelbourne 30%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Shelbourne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 51%, Shelbourne 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Shelbourne's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Shelbourne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights