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Shamrock Rovers cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Waterford.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shamrock Rovers beat Waterford 0-2 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier Division. It was 0-1 at the break, with 1 further goal after it. Scorers: D. Watts (37') · M. Noonan (84'). With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.41 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.24 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Waterford fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 1.12 / defence 1.04 against Shamrock Rovers attack 0.98 / defence 0.84, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waterford 40% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 32%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Shamrock Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 56%, Shamrock Rovers 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waterford's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 78% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 64% of games, and here they did; BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments