🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Waterford 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shamrock Rovers beat Waterford 1-2 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.14 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.44 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.93 / defence 1.29 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.07 / defence 0.91, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waterford 28% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 42%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 55%, Shamrock Rovers 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waterford's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights