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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shamrock Rovers cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Waterford.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shamrock Rovers beat Waterford 1-3 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 0.98 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.40 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.80 / defence 1.21 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.01 / defence 0.89, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waterford 26% | Draw 27% | Shamrock Rovers 47%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 51%, Shamrock Rovers 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Waterford (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights