Waterford 1-2 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waterford at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waterford host Shamrock Rovers at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 2 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Waterford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waterford have posted 5W 1D 4L at Waterford Regional Sports Centre — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shamrock Rovers have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shamrock Rovers's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Waterford 1.50 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Waterford have won 1, Shamrock Rovers 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2024, ended 3–1 with Waterford winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Waterford in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 31% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 46% versus Shamrock Rovers 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 46% | Shamrock Rovers 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.34 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 1.140 / defence 1.138 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.018 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 0.907. Data: 25 Waterford games / 59 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 43% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 29%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Shamrock Rovers 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waterford at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waterford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Waterford 50% | Shamrock Rovers 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 2 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 43% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Waterford 1.34 / Shamrock Rovers 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 1.140 / def 1.138 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.018 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.282 / away 0.907 • Poisson stance: Waterford (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Shamrock Rovers xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 2 August 2024 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Waterford 1 - 2 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 43% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Waterford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Waterford and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (1 meetings): Waterford 1W | Draws 0 | Shamrock Rovers 0W.
What form are Waterford and Shamrock Rovers in?
Waterford (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Waterford's attack rating (1.14) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waterford Win
43%
2.32
28%
3.62
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.39
1.05
Shamrock Rovers xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
8%
12.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Waterford and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Waterford and 1.05 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waterford come into this having played 26 games, going 12W 4D 10L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Waterford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shamrock Rovers sit at 1.58 PPG from 26 outings (11W 8D 7L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Shamrock Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waterford on 1.54 PPG, Shamrock Rovers on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Waterford's home form reads 7W 2D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Shamrock Rovers have taken 1.23 points per game from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waterford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Waterford are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.42 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Blended
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 12W 4D 10L in their last 26 games (1.54 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 11W 8D 7L in their last 26 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Waterford's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.77 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Waterford or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Shamrock Rovers go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Waterford's record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Waterford
1
Draws
8
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 1, Shamrock Rovers have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Waterford 0-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waterford see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 31% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 62%, Shamrock Rovers 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Waterford) and 38% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers in 38%; Waterford have failed to score in 31% of games; Shamrock Rovers in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Waterford's recent matches and 46% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Waterford's recent games and 38% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Shamrock Rovers defy the odds to beat Waterford 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Waterford 1-2 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.34 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.05 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 1.14 / defence 1.14 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.02 / defence 0.91, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 43% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 29%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Shamrock Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 46%, Shamrock Rovers 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waterford 1.54 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shamrock Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Waterford (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.