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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Waterford and Galway United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 36, as Waterford and Galway United drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.18 xG and Galway United 0.95 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.96 / defence 1.28 against Galway United attack 0.76 / defence 0.92, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waterford 40% | Draw 31% | Galway United 28%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 55%, Galway United 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waterford's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Galway United's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Waterford 1.17 PPG, Galway United 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights