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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Waterford defy the odds to beat Galway United 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waterford beat Galway United 1-0 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.04 xG and Galway United 1.74 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Galway United landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.79 / defence 1.35 against Galway United attack 1.09 / defence 0.97, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waterford 22% | Draw 24% | Galway United 53%, with Galway United to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Waterford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 50%, Galway United 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waterford's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Galway United's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Waterford 1.25 PPG, Galway United 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waterford win broke the near-deadlock. Waterford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Galway United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights