Poisson model rates Waterford at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waterford host Derry City at Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 4 September 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Waterford — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Waterford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Regional Sports Centre, Waterford have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Derry City have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Derry City have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Waterford have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Waterford register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Derry City in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Derry City, who boast 6 victories compared to 3 for Waterford.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2026, ended 4–2 with Waterford winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Derry City have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Team Stats
Waterford have played 24 games this season, recording 4W 9D 11L. They average 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 2-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 5-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 5 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 8 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 24 games (25%). Penalties this season: 6 scored / 1 missed from 7 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game.
Across 25 matches this season, Derry City have gone 6W 11D 8L. They average 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-4 (H) / 2-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 6 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 25 games (8%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 1 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.
Derry City have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 1.20 per game versus 2.00 for the hosts. Derry City lead on clean sheets this season (6 vs 2). Waterford score 2+ goals far more often (25% vs 8%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Waterford 6/7 vs Derry City 3/4 this season.
Table Context
The standings have Derry City (6th, 29 pts) 3 places above Waterford (9th, 21 pts) — a 8-point gap in Premier Division.
On home turf, Waterford's Premier Division record reads 2W 7D 3L this term. Away from home, Derry City have posted 1W 6D 5L in Premier Division this season. Waterford: Premier Division (Relegation).
In-Play Profile
Waterford in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Derry City in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 61% versus Derry City 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 56% | Derry City 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.38 xG and Derry City 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.992 / defence 1.053 | Derry City attack 0.827 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.306. Data: 60 Waterford games / 61 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 41% | Draw 30% | Derry City 30%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Derry City 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Derry City lead the H2H ledger, but Waterford carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Waterford are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waterford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Waterford 60% | Derry City 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 4 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC • Managers: Waterford (J. Coleman) | Derry City (T. Lynch) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (10 meetings): Waterford 3W | Draws 1 | Derry City 6W • Goals trend: 4.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Waterford 15 – 25 Derry City • H2H markets: BTTS 70% | Over 2.5 80% | Win rates: Waterford 30% / Draw 10% / Derry City 60% • Historical edge: Derry City dominant — 6W from 10 meetings (60% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Derry City (historical win rate 60%) but Poisson model rates Waterford as more likely (home 41% / draw 30% / away 30%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 4.00 goals/game (80% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.51 (46% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 70%, Poisson BTTS probability 52% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• Waterford (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D • Derry City (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L • Waterford home split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | CS 1 • Derry City away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 1 • Form edge: Waterford lead by 0.50 PPG (1.50 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (Waterford): Poisson xG of 1.38 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.40 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Derry City): Poisson xG of 1.14 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~1.9 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.51 (46% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Waterford 6/10, Derry City 8/10; Poisson BTTS probability 52% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Waterford — Waterford at 41% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 41% | Draw 30% | Derry City 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Waterford 1.38 / Derry City 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.992 / def 1.053 | Derry City attack 0.827 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Waterford (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Derry City xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Derry City kick off?
Waterford vs Derry City is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Friday 4 September 2026 at Regional Sports Centre.
Where is Waterford vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Derry City part of?
Waterford vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 41% chance of winning, Derry City a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Waterford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Waterford and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Derry City?
• Record (10 meetings): Waterford 3W | Draws 1 | Derry City 6W • Goals trend: 4.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Waterford 15 – 25 Derry City • H2H markets: BTTS 70% | Over 2.5 80% | Win rates: Waterford 30% / Draw 10% / Derry City 60% • Historical edge: Derry City dominant — 6W from 10 meetings (60% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Derry City (historical win rate 60%) but Poisson model rates Waterford as more likely (home 41% / draw 30% / away 30%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 4.00 goals/game (80% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.51 (46% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 70%, Poisson BTTS probability 52% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are Waterford and Derry City in?
• Waterford (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D • Derry City (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L • Waterford home split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | CS 1 • Derry City away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 1 • Form edge: Waterford lead by 0.50 PPG (1.50 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (Waterford): Poisson xG of 1.38 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.40 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Derry City): Poisson xG of 1.14 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~1.9 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.51 (46% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Waterford 6/10, Derry City 8/10; Poisson BTTS probability 52% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Waterford — Waterford at 41% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Waterford vs Derry City?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture