Waterford 0-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waterford at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waterford host Derry City at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 23 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Waterford — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Waterford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Waterford have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Derry City have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Derry City have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Waterford at 1.50 PPG versus Derry City's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Waterford, 2 for Derry City and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jun 2024, ended 0–3 with Derry City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Waterford in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Derry City in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 50% versus Derry City 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 50% | Derry City 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.07 xG and Derry City 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 1.093 / defence 1.169 | Derry City attack 0.895 / defence 0.772. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.000. Derry City's defence strength of 0.772 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 27 Waterford games / 63 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 34% | Draw 33% | Derry City 33%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Derry City 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waterford are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waterford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Waterford 60% | Derry City 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 23 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 34% | Draw 33% | Derry City 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Waterford 1.07 / Derry City 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 1.093 / def 1.169 | Derry City attack 0.895 / def 0.772 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Waterford (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Derry City xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Derry City kick off?
Waterford vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 23 August 2024 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Derry City?
Waterford 0 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Waterford vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Derry City part of?
Waterford vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 34% chance of winning, Derry City a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Waterford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Waterford and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Derry City?
Record (2 meetings): Waterford 0W | Draws 0 | Derry City 2W.
What form are Waterford and Derry City in?
Waterford (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Derry City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Waterford's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waterford Win
34%
2.93
33%
3.02
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.12
1.05
Derry City xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
11%
8.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Waterford and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Waterford and 1.05 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waterford come into this having played 28 games, going 13W 4D 11L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Waterford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Derry City sit at 1.75 PPG from 28 outings (13W 10D 5L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waterford on 1.54 PPG, Derry City on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Waterford's home form reads 6W 2D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Derry City have taken 1.23 points per game from 13 outings (3W 7D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derry City's season.
The Goals Picture
Waterford are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.57 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Blended
Derry City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and Derry City in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 13W 4D 11L in their last 28 games (1.54 PPG), while Derry City have gone 13W 10D 5L in their last 28 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Derry City away?
Waterford's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.54 PPG; Derry City away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Waterford or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Derry City in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waterford and Derry City runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jul 2025, when Derry City won 7-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waterford's record when hosting Derry City specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Waterford
1
Draws
6
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 3, Derry City have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Derry City 2-4 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Derry City see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 62%, Derry City 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Waterford) and 38% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Derry City in 54%; Waterford have failed to score in 31% of games; Derry City in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Waterford's recent matches and 38% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waterford vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Waterford's recent games and 38% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and Derry City tend to score early?
Waterford have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Derry City in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Derry City defy the odds to beat Waterford 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Waterford 0-1 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.07 xG and Derry City 1.05 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Waterford fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 1.09 / defence 1.17 against Derry City attack 0.90 / defence 0.77, drawn from 27/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 34% | Draw 33% | Derry City 33%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Derry City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 50%, Derry City 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derry City's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waterford 1.54 PPG, Derry City 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.