Waterford vs Cork City – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Waterford edge out Cork City 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waterford beat Cork City 2-1 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.35 xG and Cork City 0.92 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.84 / defence 1.00 against Cork City attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Waterford 45% | Draw 31% | Cork City 24%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 51%, Cork City 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Cork City's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Waterford arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights