🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Waterford defy the odds to beat Bohemians 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waterford beat Bohemians 2-1 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.01 xG and Bohemians 1.58 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Waterford beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.93 / defence 1.34 against Bohemians attack 1.04 / defence 0.85, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waterford 24% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 50%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Waterford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 51%, Bohemians 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Bohemians's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Waterford 1.30 PPG, Bohemians 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waterford win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights