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Dominant Bohemians run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Waterford.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians beat Waterford 0-3 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.22 xG and Bohemians 0.94 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Waterford fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bohemians outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.90 / defence 1.02 against Bohemians attack 0.88 / defence 0.95, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Waterford 41% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 27%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Bohemians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 51%, Bohemians 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bohemians's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Waterford 1.30 PPG, Bohemians 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights