UCD 1-3 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Drogheda United (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as UCD face Drogheda United.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
UCD and Drogheda United meet at UCD Bowl in Premier Division, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Friday 14 July 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
UCD (all games): 1W 0D 9L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 3.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for UCD, so this record blends games from this season and last.
UCD's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at UCD Bowl this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — UCD are significantly better at UCD Bowl than their overall form suggests.
Drogheda United have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Drogheda United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Drogheda United have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Drogheda United are 0.80 PPG clear of UCD in recent Premier Division fixtures (1.10 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Drogheda United, who have claimed 4 wins from 6 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2023, ended 1–3 with Drogheda United winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Drogheda United have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
UCD — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Drogheda United — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 44% versus Drogheda United 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 54% | Drogheda United 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 1.11 xG and Drogheda United 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.708 / defence 1.480 | Drogheda United attack 1.016 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.118. UCD's attack strength of 0.708 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 UCD games / 59 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: UCD 25% | Draw 24% | Drogheda United 51%. Fair-value odds: UCD 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Drogheda United 1.96. Drogheda United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Drogheda United are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Drogheda United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: UCD 30% | Drogheda United 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Friday 14 Jul 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 25% | Draw 24% | Drogheda United 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG UCD 1.11 / Drogheda United 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.708 / def 1.480 | Drogheda United attack 1.016 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
UCD xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Drogheda United xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does UCD vs Drogheda United kick off?
UCD vs Drogheda United kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 14 July 2023 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs Drogheda United?
UCD 1 - 3 Drogheda United.
Where is UCD vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs Drogheda United part of?
UCD vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 25% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both UCD and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will UCD vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Drogheda United?
Record (6 meetings): UCD 1W | Draws 1 | Drogheda United 4W.
What form are UCD and Drogheda United in?
UCD (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 3.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from UCD's attack rating (0.71) and Drogheda United's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Drogheda United's attack (1.02x) against UCD's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
25%
3.98
24%
4.14
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
UCD xG
Total xG
2.79
1.68
Drogheda United xG
3.98
25%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
5%
21.39
17%
5.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are UCD and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for UCD and 1.68 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs Drogheda United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
UCD come into this having played 59 games, going 9W 11D 39L for 0.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for UCD is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Drogheda United sit at 1.07 PPG from 59 outings (15W 18D 26L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Drogheda United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Drogheda United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of UCD — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
UCD's home form reads 6W 6D 17L across 29 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Drogheda United have taken 0.83 points per game from 29 outings (5W 9D 15L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
UCD are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 0.95 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Blended
Drogheda United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are UCD and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 9W 11D 39L in their last 59 games (0.64 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 15W 18D 26L in their last 59 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — UCD at home or Drogheda United away?
UCD's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — UCD at home: 0.83 PPG; Drogheda United away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Drogheda United have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Drogheda United won 3-0 on 1 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, UCD have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
UCD
1
Draws
6
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Drogheda United?
From 8 meetings on record, UCD have won 1, Drogheda United have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did UCD and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2023, when Drogheda United 3-0 UCD.
Who has won more matches between UCD and Drogheda United?
Drogheda United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — UCD 45%, Drogheda United 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (UCD) and 45% (Drogheda United).
On the defensive side: UCD have failed to score in 48% of games; Drogheda United in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when UCD play Drogheda United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of UCD's recent matches and 55% of Drogheda United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is UCD vs Drogheda United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of UCD's recent games and 45% of Drogheda United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do UCD and Drogheda United tend to score early?
UCD have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Drogheda United in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Drogheda United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Drogheda United beat UCD 1-3 at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 1.11 xG and Drogheda United 1.68 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Drogheda United outscored their 1.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.71 / defence 1.48 against Drogheda United attack 1.02 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 25% | Draw 24% | Drogheda United 51%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 54%, Drogheda United 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
UCD's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Drogheda United's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Drogheda United arrived the stronger side — 1.07 PPG against 0.64. That form edge translated into the three points. UCD (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Drogheda United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.