🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 9 as St Patrick's Athl. welcome Sligo Rovers to Richmond Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 April 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Guide

St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sligo Rovers stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Sligo Rovers's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (St Patrick's Athl.) versus 1.50 (Sligo Rovers). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: St Patrick's Athl. have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Sligo Rovers have managed just 2 wins.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Sligo Rovers winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both St Patrick's Athl. and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Profile

St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Sligo Rovers in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 43% versus Sligo Rovers 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Sligo Rovers 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.52 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.263 / defence 0.730 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.734 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.013. St Patrick's Athl. carry an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — their λ of 1.52 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.730 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 St Patrick's Athl. games / 44 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 60% | Draw 28% | Sligo Rovers 12%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.67 | Draw 3.57 | Sligo Rovers 8.33. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (60%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Sligo Rovers's lower xG of 0.54 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 30% | Sligo Rovers 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights