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Dominant St Patrick's Athl. run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sligo Rovers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St Patrick's Athl. beat Sligo Rovers 4-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.52 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.54 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.26 / defence 0.73 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.73 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 60% | Draw 28% | Sligo Rovers 12%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 47%, Sligo Rovers 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights