🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 3 as St Patrick's Athl. welcome Sligo Rovers to Richmond Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Guide

St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Richmond Park this season.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sligo Rovers stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Sligo Rovers's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.

St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.80 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for St Patrick's Athl., 1 for Sligo Rovers and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2024, ended 2–0 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Sligo Rovers in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 49% versus Sligo Rovers 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Sligo Rovers 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.58 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.927 / defence 0.868 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.901 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 0.956. Sligo Rovers bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 St Patrick's Athl. games / 38 Sligo Rovers games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 57% | Draw 25% | Sligo Rovers 18%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Sligo Rovers 5.56. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: St Patrick's Athl. 70% | Sligo Rovers 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights