🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 17 as St Patrick's Athl. welcome Shelbourne to Richmond Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 May 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

St Patrick's Athl.'s home record at Richmond Park: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Shelbourne — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Premier Division this season, Shelbourne have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — St Patrick's Athl. at 1.70 PPG versus Shelbourne's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Shelbourne have the better historical record — 5 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for St Patrick's Athl..

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2026, ended 3–2 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.

It is worth noting that Shelbourne have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Shelbourne in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 43% versus Shelbourne 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Shelbourne 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 2.00 xG and Shelbourne 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.389 / defence 0.782 | Shelbourne attack 1.265 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.212. St Patrick's Athl. carry an above-average attack strength of 1.389 — their λ of 2.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shelbourne have an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — the away xG of 1.20 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 St Patrick's Athl. games / 51 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Draw 24% | Shelbourne 21%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Shelbourne 4.76. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 62% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 30% | Shelbourne 70%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights