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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Shelbourne defy the odds to beat St Patrick's Athl. 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shelbourne beat St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 2.00 xG and Shelbourne 1.20 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. St Patrick's Athl. fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.39 / defence 0.78 against Shelbourne attack 1.26 / defence 0.96, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Draw 24% | Shelbourne 21%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Shelbourne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 47%, Shelbourne 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 PPG, Shelbourne 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Shelbourne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights