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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 25 as St Patrick's Athl. welcome Shelbourne to Richmond Park. Kick-off is set for Monday 16 June 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

St Patrick's Athl.'s home record at Richmond Park: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Richmond Park this season.

Shelbourne — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in Premier Division this season, Shelbourne have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

On current form, St Patrick's Athl. have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Shelbourne have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for St Patrick's Athl..

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Shelbourne winning.

It is worth noting that Shelbourne have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Shelbourne in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 49% versus Shelbourne 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Shelbourne 31%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.44 xG and Shelbourne 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.183 / defence 0.913 | Shelbourne attack 0.917 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.114. Data: 56 St Patrick's Athl. games / 56 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 49% | Draw 27% | Shelbourne 24%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Shelbourne 4.17. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Shelbourne lead the H2H ledger, but St Patrick's Athl. carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 70% | Shelbourne 40%.

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