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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 64% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City encounter.

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Analysis

Cork City make the trip to Richmond Park to face St Patrick's Athl. in Premier Division, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Monday 22 September 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Form

St Patrick's Athl. (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

St Patrick's Athl. at Richmond Park this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Cork City's overall Premier Division record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Cork City's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for St Patrick's Athl., 1.00 for Cork City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Across 7 previous meetings, St Patrick's Athl. are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both St Patrick's Athl. and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

St Patrick's Athl. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.

Cork City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 37% versus Cork City 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 43% | Cork City 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.82 xG and Cork City 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.987 / defence 0.871 | Cork City attack 0.738 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.042. Cork City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 St Patrick's Athl. games / 30 Cork City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 64% | Draw 25% | Cork City 12%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.56 | Draw 4.00 | Cork City 8.33. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (64%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 40% | Cork City 60%.

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