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Poisson model favours St Patrick's Athl. (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as St Patrick's Athl. face Cork City.

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Analysis

Cork City make the trip to Richmond Park to face St Patrick's Athl. in Premier Division, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Friday 16 May 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Form

St Patrick's Athl. (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

St Patrick's Athl. at Richmond Park this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Richmond Park this season.

Cork City's overall Premier Division record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Cork City haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Cork City's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 2.10 in St Patrick's Athl.'s favour (2.80 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Across 5 previous meetings, St Patrick's Athl. are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2025, ended 2–0 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both St Patrick's Athl. and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

St Patrick's Athl. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).

Cork City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 51% versus Cork City 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 57% | Cork City 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 2.21 xG and Cork City 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.206 / defence 0.796 | Cork City attack 0.873 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.146. Cork City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 St Patrick's Athl. games / 15 Cork City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 70% | Draw 18% | Cork City 12%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | Cork City 8.33. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: St Patrick's Athl. 70% | Cork City 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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