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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 49%, yet in-form Bohemians provide a compelling counter-argument — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

St Patrick's Athl. host Bohemians at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 30 October 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 7W 1D 2L at Richmond Park — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at Richmond Park than their overall form suggests.

Bohemians — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bohemians's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bohemians — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, Bohemians 2, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jun 2026, ended 0–2 with Bohemians winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.

Bohemians trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 35% versus Bohemians 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 38% | Bohemians 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.61 xG and Bohemians 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.239 / defence 0.607 | Bohemians attack 1.300 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.306. Bohemians have an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — the away xG of 1.03 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.607 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 St Patrick's Athl. games / 61 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 49% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 23%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Bohemians 4.35. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bohemians (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 40% | Bohemians 60%.

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