🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 39%, yet in-form Bohemians provide a compelling counter-argument — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

St Patrick's Athl. host Bohemians at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 4 July 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 4W 4D 2L at Richmond Park — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at Richmond Park than their overall form suggests.

Bohemians — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bohemians's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bohemians — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, Bohemians 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Bohemians winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Bohemians trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 48% versus Bohemians 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 53% | Bohemians 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.18 xG and Bohemians 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.986 / defence 0.954 | Bohemians attack 1.040 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.045. Data: 60 St Patrick's Athl. games / 58 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 39% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 32%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bohemians (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 30% | Bohemians 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights